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What this page does

Keep this question’s change, evidence, and possible invalidation in one place. Return later to see whether the market kept changing its mind.

Tracking this question
UNUSUAL 87/99
What looks unusual Unexpected buying in a low-probability outcome
Tracking Live
Before

This outcome was not a favorite before.

What changed

Other buys appeared within the same second

Why this deserves attention nowWill Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

The public-market view just changed. See why this move deserves attention.

What looks unusual
  • 0sOther buys appeared within the same second
  • 94%About 94% of this candidate capital entered outcomes that were at 35% or lower at the time.
  • 1414 different buyers bought the same outcome
What the market is saying now
Market-implied chance of “Yes”50% 50%
Buying volume$16.6K
Different buyers14
Related questions2

The checked related markets do not yet show a clear direction.

Iliana Iotova (lose)68% → 70%
Аndrey Gyurov (win)32% → 31%
Why this matters to you

If this political outcome becomes more likely, related policy, industry, and regional risks may be repriced.

  • policy-exposed industries
  • local currency
  • regional risk
What would strengthen the signal

The exact effect depends on the candidate's policies and implementation, not only the chance of winning.

What to check next time

Watch whether election, legislative-control, and key-policy questions continue to align.

What supports this view
Supporting evidence

8 independent taker actions bought the same outcome;first different-wallet follow-on appeared 0s later;2 related markets were involved;$16,637 candidate capital;94% of candidate capital entered <=35% outcomes。

What could overturn it

Public data cannot reveal why buyers acted or guarantee the outcome.

Data quality

insufficient

Post-detection price tracking
+1h: 0pp+6h: 0pp+24h: -2pp
Original marketsOpen source 1